Tennis · Challenger Plovdiv · 03/09, 09:00
Prediction: Nikita Mashtakov vs Juan Manuel La Serna
Team pages: Nikita Mashtakov · Juan Manuel La Serna
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikita Mashtakov
Juan Manuel La Serna
Estimated games
23.9
Recent form · 10 last
Nikita Mashtakov
6-4 (W-L)
Juan Manuel La Serna
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikita Mashtakov 1587 · Juan Manuel La Serna 1503
| Nikita Mashtakov | Juan Manuel La Serna | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikita Mashtakov (rating 1587 vs 1503).
- Nikita Mashtakov is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Nikita Mashtakov | Juan Manuel La Serna | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (3) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.8 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.8-11.5 | 12.1-11.6 |
| Aces | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 64.7% | 67% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 47.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikita Mashtakov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Stefan Popovic Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 31/08 | Jannik Opitz Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/08 | Valentin Basel Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/08 | Daniel Michalski M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Tom Zeuch M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 22/08 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 21/08 | Alexander Wagner M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
Juan Manuel La Serna
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 26/08 | Hynek Barton Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Benjamin Hassan Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Sion · Clay |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 18/08 | Facundo Mena Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/07 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Quito · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Alex Hernandez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 27/06 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Enzo Kohlmann De Freitas Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 18/06 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikita Mashtakov vs Juan Manuel La Serna?
Our model gives 56% to Juan Manuel La Serna, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.