Tennis · M15 Madrid · 02/09, 10:00
Prediction: Ryan Nijboer vs Mario Arce Fernandez
Team pages: Ryan Nijboer · Mario Arce Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Ryan Nijboer
Mario Arce Fernandez
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Ryan Nijboer
5-5 (W-L)
Mario Arce Fernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ryan Nijboer 1520 · Mario Arce Fernandez 1516
| Ryan Nijboer | Mario Arce Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Ryan Nijboer | Mario Arce Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 63% (8) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.2-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-9.7 | 9.4-9.2 |
| Aces | 3 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 56.3% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ryan Nijboer
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Carles Hernandez M25 Oviedo |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 24/08 | Tomas Curras Abasolo M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Murkel Dellien Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/08 | Jannik Opitz Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 17/07 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/07 | Niels Visker Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/07 | Mika Brunold Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 13/07 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/07 | Amit Vales Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Mario Arce Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Boris Butulija M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 25/08 | Ognjen Jagrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Dmitry Bessonov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ognjen Jagrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Filippo Mazzola M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Xavier Ferrer Mateo M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Pedro Rodenas M25 Denia |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Denia |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ryan Nijboer vs Mario Arce Fernandez?
Our model gives 70% to Ryan Nijboer, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.