Tennis · Challenger Como · 02/09, 10:00
Prediction: Federico Arnaboldi vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Federico Arnaboldi · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Federico Arnaboldi
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Federico Arnaboldi
7-3 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Federico Arnaboldi
0–1
Juan Pablo Varillas
(1 last)
- 28 Mar0-2 10-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Federico Arnaboldi 1504 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1615
| Federico Arnaboldi | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1504 vs 1615).
- Head-to-head: Federico Arnaboldi 0–1 Juan Pablo Varillas (1).
Statistics
| Federico Arnaboldi | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 78% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.1 | 13.2-11.8 |
| Aces | 3 | 5 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 68.2% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 44.8% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Federico Arnaboldi 0 – 1 Juan Pablo Varillas (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Federico Arnaboldi 0–1 Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/23 Challenger Sanremo | 0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Federico Arnaboldi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Gabriele Crivellaro Challenger Todi · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 05/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Niccolo Ciavarella M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 30/07 | Sandro Kopp M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Giovanni Oradini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 28/07 | Peter Buldorini M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/07 | Peetu Pohjola Challenger Tampere · Clay |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Daniel Salazar Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 28/06 | Giovanni Oradini M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 27/06 | Fausto Tabacco M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Juan Pablo Varillas
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Timofey Skatov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Federico Arnaboldi vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 69% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.