Tennis · Challenger Como · 05/09, 16:00
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Jay Clarke
Team pages: Juan Pablo Varillas · Jay Clarke
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Pablo Varillas
Jay Clarke
Estimated games
24.6
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Pablo Varillas
7-3 (W-L)
Jay Clarke
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1585 · Jay Clarke 1506
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Jay Clarke | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 51% | 49% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Juan Pablo Varillas (rating 1585 vs 1506).
- Juan Pablo Varillas is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Jay Clarke | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.4-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-10.8 | 14.1-13.3 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 71.6% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 44.7% | 55.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Timofey Skatov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Jay Clarke
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Duje Ajdukovic Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 03/09 | Pedro Martinez Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 01/09 | Francesco Forti Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Rei Sakamoto US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 18/08 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Kingston · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 20/07 | Jerome Kym Challenger Zug · Clay |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Stijn Paardekooper M25 The Hague |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 08/07 | Mac Visser M25 The Hague |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Andrea Pellegrino Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 17/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Jay Clarke?
Our model gives 56% to Juan Pablo Varillas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.