Tennis · Challenger Como · 06/09, 17:00
Prediction: Matej Dodig vs Juan Pablo Varillas
Team pages: Matej Dodig · Juan Pablo Varillas
Prediction summary
Winner
Matej Dodig
Juan Pablo Varillas
Estimated games
23.7
Recent form · 10 last
Matej Dodig
7-3 (W-L)
Juan Pablo Varillas
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matej Dodig 1615 · Juan Pablo Varillas 1626
| Matej Dodig | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Matej Dodig dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 47.9% break avg.
Statistics
| Matej Dodig | Juan Pablo Varillas | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 89% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.7-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-9.9 | 13.7-10.8 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| 1st serve % | 79.1% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 47.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matej Dodig
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Johan Nikles Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/09 | Max Schoenhaus Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/09 | Henry Bernet Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 20-18 | W |
| 31/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/08 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 06/08 | Lorenzo Giustino Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Stefano Travaglia Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Hagen · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Jay Clarke Challenger Como · Clay |
2-1 | 19-13 | W |
| 02/09 | Federico Arnaboldi Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 31/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Como · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Timofey Skatov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matej Dodig vs Juan Pablo Varillas?
Our model gives 57% to Matej Dodig, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.