Tennis · M15 Madrid · 02/09, 10:00
Prediction: Alejandro Garcia vs Xavi Palomar
Team pages: Alejandro Garcia · Xavi Palomar
Prediction summary
Winner
Alejandro Garcia
Xavi Palomar
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alejandro Garcia
4-6 (W-L)
Xavi Palomar
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alejandro Garcia 1545 · Xavi Palomar 1461
| Alejandro Garcia | Xavi Palomar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 77% | 23% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alejandro Garcia (rating 1545 vs 1461).
- Alejandro Garcia is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Alejandro Garcia makes many double faults (4.2/match).
- Note: Xavi Palomar makes many double faults (4.9/match).
Statistics
| Alejandro Garcia | Xavi Palomar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (5) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-9.3 | 8.5-11.1 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 4.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 54.5% |
| Break % | 53.7% | 49.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alejandro Garcia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Pedro Rodenas M25 Oviedo |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 25/08 | Javier Barranco Cosano M25 Oviedo |
2-1 | 14-14 | W |
| 24/08 | Nicolas Rafael Goldberg Alviani M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 23/08 | Marc Ros Mesas M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 18/08 | Alejandro Juan Mano M25 Santander |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/07 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Pedro Rodenas M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 02/07 | Gabriele Bosio M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | Iker Gaztambide Arrastia M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-6 | W |
| 29/06 | Carlos Giraldi M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Xavi Palomar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Samuel De Felipe Garcia M25 Oviedo |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 24/08 | Pavel Petrov M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Alvaro De Miguel Montero M25 Oviedo |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/08 | Ignacio Parisca Romera M25 Santander |
1-2 | 8-16 | L |
| 17/08 | Marc Ros Mesas M25 Santander |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/06 | Sergi Perez Contri M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-1 | 1-6 | L |
| 10/06 | Emile Hudd M25 Martos · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/04 | Lucas Poullain M15 Sanxenxo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 31/03 | Joao Domingues M25 Reus · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/02 | Sergi Fita Juan M15 Almoradi · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alejandro Garcia vs Xavi Palomar?
Our model gives 70% to Alejandro Garcia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.