Tennis · Challenger Manacor · 01/09, 11:30
Prediction: Carl Emil Overbeck vs Luca Potenza
Team pages: Carl Emil Overbeck · Luca Potenza
Prediction summary
Winner
Carl Emil Overbeck
Luca Potenza
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Carl Emil Overbeck
10-0 (W-L)
Luca Potenza
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carl Emil Overbeck 1638 · Luca Potenza 1497
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 31% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carl Emil Overbeck (rating 1638 vs 1497).
- Carl Emil Overbeck dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 47.9% break avg.
- Carl Emil Overbeck is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Luca Potenza | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.3 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-8.7 | 12-11.3 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 3.3 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.8 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 67.6% |
| Break % | 47.9% | 42% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Ryan Peniston Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Tobia Grandinetti M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Petr Nesterov M25 Gentofte |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Jonas Eriksson Ziverts M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/07 | Evangelos Kypriotis M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Luca Potenza
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Daniel Masur Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/08 | Alec Deckers Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 05/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Samuel Heredia M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 06/07 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Trieste · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 05/07 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Trieste · Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 28/06 | Matthew William Donald Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Elmer Moller Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Kaito Uesugi Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Matei Varbanciu Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carl Emil Overbeck vs Luca Potenza?
Our model gives 72% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.