Tennis · Challenger Manacor · 31/08, 13:00
Prediction: Carl Emil Overbeck vs Ryan Peniston
Team pages: Carl Emil Overbeck · Ryan Peniston
Prediction summary
Winner
Carl Emil Overbeck
Ryan Peniston
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Carl Emil Overbeck
10-0 (W-L)
Ryan Peniston
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carl Emil Overbeck 1655 · Ryan Peniston 1427
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Ryan Peniston | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 79% | 21% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carl Emil Overbeck (rating 1655 vs 1427).
- Carl Emil Overbeck dominates on serve: 7.1 aces and 49.9% break avg.
- Carl Emil Overbeck is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Note: Ryan Peniston makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Carl Emil Overbeck | Ryan Peniston | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 20% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.9-0.3 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.8-8.5 | 8.8-11.6 |
| Aces | 7.1 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 4 |
| 1st serve % | 74% | 60.7% |
| Break % | 49.9% | 31% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carl Emil Overbeck
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Marcello Serafini M25 Fano |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Leonardo Primucci M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 06/08 | Stefano D'Agostino M25 Fano |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/08 | Gabriele Maria Noce M25 Fano |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Tobia Grandinetti M25 Fano |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/08 | Petr Nesterov M25 Gentofte |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Ivan Ivanov M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Jonas Eriksson Ziverts M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/07 | Evangelos Kypriotis M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/07 | Lorenzo Balducci M25 Gentofte |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Ryan Peniston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 20/02 | Max Basing M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-9 | L |
| 19/02 | Francisco Rocha M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 17/02 | Rodrigo Alujas M25 Vila Real de Santo Antonio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/02 | Hynek Barton Challenger Tenerife · Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 27/01 | Coleman Wong Challenger Manama · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/01 | Hyeon Chung Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 13/01 | Roman Andres Burruchaga Australian Open · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 05/01 | Moerani Bouzige Challenger Noumea · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 08/11 | Sho Shimabukuro Challenger Matsuyama · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carl Emil Overbeck vs Ryan Peniston?
Our model gives 67% to Carl Emil Overbeck, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.