Tennis · Challenger Como · 30/08, 18:00
Prediction: Andrey Chepelev vs Niccolo Ciavarella
Team pages: Andrey Chepelev · Niccolo Ciavarella
Prediction summary
Winner
Andrey Chepelev
Niccolo Ciavarella
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Andrey Chepelev
7-3 (W-L)
Niccolo Ciavarella
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Andrey Chepelev 1543 · Niccolo Ciavarella 1412
| Andrey Chepelev | Niccolo Ciavarella | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Andrey Chepelev (rating 1543 vs 1412).
- Andrey Chepelev is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Andrey Chepelev | Niccolo Ciavarella | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 10% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (6) | 0% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 0.4-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-8.2 | 7.5-12.2 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 60.1% |
| Break % | 48% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Andrey Chepelev
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Lorenzo Carboni M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/08 | Nino Ehrenschneider M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Tymur Bieldiugin M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/08 | Luca Parenti M25 Lausanne |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Luca Staeheli Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 15/08 | Stefan Horia Haita M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 14/08 | Bor Artnak M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Aleksandar Tolev M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 11/08 | David Eichenseher M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Marko Maksimovic M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Niccolo Ciavarella
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Federico Arnaboldi M25 Fano |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Adrian Andreev M25 Bolzano · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Raffaele Ciurnelli M15 Segrate |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 16/07 | Maximilian Homberg M15 Gubbio |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Matteo Sciahbasi M15 Gubbio |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Ilya Snitari M15 Bucharest · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/06 | Georgii Kravchenko Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Federico Arnaboldi M15 Bergamo · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Joaquin Guilleme M15 Mungia-Laukariz · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Antonio Caruso M15 Messina · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Andrey Chepelev vs Niccolo Ciavarella?
Our model gives 78% to Andrey Chepelev, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.