Tennis · Challenger Como · 02/09, 10:00
Prediction: Juan Pablo Varillas vs Jan Kumstat
Team pages: Juan Pablo Varillas · Jan Kumstat
Prediction summary
Winner
Juan Pablo Varillas
Jan Kumstat
Estimated games
23.8
Recent form · 10 last
Juan Pablo Varillas
6-4 (W-L)
Jan Kumstat
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Juan Pablo Varillas 1552 · Jan Kumstat 1708
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 71% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan Kumstat (rating 1552 vs 1708).
- Jan Kumstat is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Juan Pablo Varillas | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 100% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (9) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 2-0.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-12.8 | 15-10.3 |
| Aces | 5 | 5.6 |
| Double faults | 2 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 69% | 82.2% |
| Break % | 44.1% | 55.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Juan Pablo Varillas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 01/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/07 | Timofey Skatov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Francesco Maestrelli Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Jacopo Vasami Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 26/07 | Stefan Latinov Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/07 | Alexander Donski Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 11/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Jan Kumstat
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 21/08 | Filip Cristian Jianu Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Maxim Mrva Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 18/08 | Petr Brunclik Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 15/08 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Max Houkes Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 11/08 | Jamie Mackenzie Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 10/08 | Tom Zeuch Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Juan Pablo Varillas vs Jan Kumstat?
Our model gives 77% to Jan Kumstat, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.