Tennis · Challenger Plovdiv · 30/08, 16:00
Prediction: Nikita Mashtakov vs Valentin Basel
Team pages: Nikita Mashtakov · Valentin Basel
Prediction summary
Winner
Nikita Mashtakov
Valentin Basel
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Nikita Mashtakov
5-5 (W-L)
Valentin Basel
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nikita Mashtakov 1591 · Valentin Basel 1502
| Nikita Mashtakov | Valentin Basel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 83% | 17% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nikita Mashtakov (rating 1591 vs 1502).
- Nikita Mashtakov is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Nikita Mashtakov | Valentin Basel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (1) | 57% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 14-12 | 10.3-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 61.5% | 61.9% |
| Break % | 46.5% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nikita Mashtakov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Daniel Michalski M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/08 | Vladyslav Orlov M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 18-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Kirill Kivattsev M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 26/08 | Tom Zeuch M25 Poznan |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/08 | Thilo Behrmann M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 22/08 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 21/08 | Alexander Wagner M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 20/08 | Kabeer Kapasi M15 Mistelbach |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/08 | Leyton Rivera M15 Mistelbach |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 11/08 | Oriol Roca Batalla Challenger Todi · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Valentin Basel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Gerard Campana Lee M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Alex Finkelstein M25 Poznan |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Pietro Marino Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Dinko Dinev Challenger Plovdiv · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Juan Estevez M15 San Salvador de Jujuy |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Valerio Aboian Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Ignacio Parisca Romera Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/06 | Salvador Price Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/06 | Ignacio Monzon Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/06 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nikita Mashtakov vs Valentin Basel?
Our model gives 74% to Nikita Mashtakov, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.