Prediction: Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith
Team pages: Hugo Gaston · Colton Smith
Prediction summary
Winner
Hugo Gaston
Colton Smith
Estimated games
23.4Bet365 line 23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hugo Gaston
6-4 (W-L)
Colton Smith
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hugo Gaston 1523 · Colton Smith 1482
| Hugo Gaston | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hugo Gaston (rating 1523 vs 1482).
- Note: Colton Smith makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Hugo Gaston | Colton Smith | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.3-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-9.7 | 14.1-15.7 |
| Aces | 1 | 5.4 |
| Double faults | 2.4 | 5.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 57.7% | 38.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4 · Bet365 line 23.5
Over 23.5: 50% · 1.83
Under 23.5: 50% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hugo Gaston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Andre Ilagan US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Guido Ivan Justo US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Jesper De Jong Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 01/08 | Duncan Chan ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 25/07 | Luca Van Assche ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 24/07 | Tiago Torres ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/07 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Colton Smith
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Jerome Kym US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 25/08 | Andrea Pellegrino US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 13/08 | Felix Gill Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 04/08 | Jay Friend Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 16/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 25/06 | Michael Zheng Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-22 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hugo Gaston vs Colton Smith?
Our model gives 53% to Hugo Gaston, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.