Prediction: Kei Nishikori vs Rei Sakamoto
Team pages: Kei Nishikori · Rei Sakamoto
Prediction summary
Winner
Kei Nishikori
Rei Sakamoto
Estimated games
23.3Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kei Nishikori
5-5 (W-L)
Rei Sakamoto
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kei Nishikori 1510 · Rei Sakamoto 1559
| Kei Nishikori | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rei Sakamoto (rating 1510 vs 1559).
- Rei Sakamoto dominates on serve: 8.8 aces and 42.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Kei Nishikori | Rei Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 70% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.3 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.3-12.5 | 13.8-11.6 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 8.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 67.1% | 76.5% |
| Break % | 33.8% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.8
Over 22.5: 56% · 1.80
Under 22.5: 44% · 1.90
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kei Nishikori
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Michael Antonius US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Sebastian Ofner US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 14-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Francisco Comesana ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 01/08 | Michael Zheng ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Rafael Jodar ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Juncheng Shang ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 22/04 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Savannah · Clay |
1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 21/04 | Colton Smith Challenger Savannah · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/04 | Yibing Wu Challenger Sarasota · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
Rei Sakamoto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Alexandre Muller US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Jay Clarke US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/08 | Luca Van Assche Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 18/08 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 14/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 12/08 | Ugo Blanchet Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 07/08 | Edas Butvilas Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 06/08 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kei Nishikori vs Rei Sakamoto?
Our model gives 55% to Rei Sakamoto, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.