Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Jurij Rodionov
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Jurij Rodionov
Estimated games
21.2Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Jurij Rodionov
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1538 · Jurij Rodionov 1559
| Jacob Fearnley | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Jurij Rodionov dominates on serve: 6.6 aces and 47.9% break avg.
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (4.8/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Jurij Rodionov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 67% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.4-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.1 | 11.2-8.8 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 6.6 |
| Double faults | 4.8 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.8% | 72.8% |
| Break % | 46.9% | 47.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.2 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 48% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 52% · 1.80
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Luka Pavlovic US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 24/08 | Roberto Carballes Baena US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 22/08 | Taro Daniel Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/08 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Jurij Rodionov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Frederico Ferreira Silva US Open · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 24/08 | Kimmer Coppejans US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Jamie Mackenzie Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 29/07 | Niels McDonald Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 27/07 | Pedro Boscardin Dias Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Joel Schwaerzler ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/07 | Vitaliy Sachko ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 18/07 | Andrey Chepelev ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Jurij Rodionov?
Our model gives 58% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.