Tennis · M25 Taipei · 27/08, 04:00
Prediction: Hiromasa Koyama vs Luca Castelnuovo
Team pages: Hiromasa Koyama · Luca Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Hiromasa Koyama
Luca Castelnuovo
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Hiromasa Koyama
4-6 (W-L)
Luca Castelnuovo
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hiromasa Koyama 1483 · Luca Castelnuovo 1453
| Hiromasa Koyama | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 27% | 73% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 43.5% break avg.
Statistics
| Hiromasa Koyama | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-12 | 10.3-11.9 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 61.6% | 70.5% |
| Break % | 60.5% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hiromasa Koyama
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Shinji Hazawa M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 17/08 | Manish Sureshkumar M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 8-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Yusuke Takahashi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Jesse Delaney M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 10/06 | Hayden Jones M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 06/06 | Youssef Kadiri Hassani M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 05/06 | Colin Sinclair M15 Harmon · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Fares Zakaria Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/06 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hiromasa Koyama vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 61% to Luca Castelnuovo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.