Tennis · M25 Taipei · 28/08, 04:00
Prediction: Yanki Erel vs Luca Castelnuovo
Team pages: Yanki Erel · Luca Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Yanki Erel
Luca Castelnuovo
Estimated games
22.9
Recent form · 10 last
Yanki Erel
7-3 (W-L)
Luca Castelnuovo
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yanki Erel 1561 · Luca Castelnuovo 1489
| Yanki Erel | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 79% | 21% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yanki Erel (rating 1561 vs 1489).
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 6.2 aces and 48.2% break avg.
- Yanki Erel is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Yanki Erel | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-11.3 | 11.4-12 |
| Aces | 5.9 | 6.2 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 69.7% | 70% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 48.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yanki Erel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Hikaru Shiraishi M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 26/08 | Kokoro Isomura M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 31/07 | Paul Inchauspe Challenger Samsun · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 29/07 | Radu Albot Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/07 | Arda Azkara Challenger Samsun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 21/07 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 15/07 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Fares Zakaria Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yanki Erel vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 71% to Yanki Erel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.