Tennis · M25 Taipei · 26/08, 04:00
Prediction: Moerani Bouzige vs Luca Castelnuovo
Team pages: Moerani Bouzige · Luca Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Moerani Bouzige
Luca Castelnuovo
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Moerani Bouzige
4-6 (W-L)
Luca Castelnuovo
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Moerani Bouzige
0–1
Luca Castelnuovo
(1 last)
- 06 Aug0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Moerani Bouzige 1509 · Luca Castelnuovo 1433
| Moerani Bouzige | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Moerani Bouzige (rating 1509 vs 1433).
- Moerani Bouzige dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 44.6% break avg.
- Moerani Bouzige is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Moerani Bouzige 0–1 Luca Castelnuovo (1).
Statistics
| Moerani Bouzige | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (1) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.7-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10.5 | 9.6-12.1 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 5.7 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 69.6% |
| Break % | 44.6% | 43.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Moerani Bouzige 0 – 1 Luca Castelnuovo (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Moerani Bouzige 0–1 Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/25 ITF M25 Bali | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Moerani Bouzige
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Shunsuke Mitsui M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Omar Jasika M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Jake Delaney M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/07 | Shinji Hazawa M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 30/07 | Zane Stevens M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Nikita Volonski M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 24/07 | Matt Hulme M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 21/07 | Mustafa Ege Sik M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 15/07 | Matt Hulme M25 Brisbane |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Milos Karol Challenger Poznan · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 14/06 | Fares Zakaria Challenger Poznan · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 06/06 | Jurij Rodionov ATP Stuttgart · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Centurion · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Moerani Bouzige vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 52% to Moerani Bouzige, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.