Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 24/08, 01:00
Prediction: Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula
Team pages: Coco Gauff · Jessica Pegula
Prediction summary
Winner
Coco Gauff
Jessica Pegula
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Coco Gauff
8-2 (W-L)
Jessica Pegula
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Coco Gauff
4–4
Jessica Pegula
(8 last)
- 07 Jul2-1 16-12W
- 02 Nov1-2 12-18L
- 12 Oct2-0 13-9W
- 03 Nov2-0 12-5W
- 22 Jun0-2 11-14L
- 04 Nov0-2 3-12L
- 11 Aug1-2 14-18L
- 29 Jun2-0 12-6W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Coco Gauff 1612 · Jessica Pegula 1587
| Coco Gauff | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Coco Gauff makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Coco Gauff | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 89% (9) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.7-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-7.9 | 13-10.8 |
| Aces | 4.3 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 4.5 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 66.9% |
| Break % | 44.4% | 56.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Coco Gauff 4 – 4 Jessica Pegula (8)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Coco Gauff 4–4 Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/07/26 Wimbledon Women | 2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/11/25 WTA Finals | 1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 12/10/25 WTA Wuhan | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/11/24 WTA Finals | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/06/24 WTA Berlin | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/11/23 WTA Finals | 0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/08/23 WTA Montreal | 1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 29/06/23 WTA Eastbourne | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Coco Gauff
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Marie Bouzkova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 18/08 | Ann Li WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 17/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 13/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 09/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/08 | Maria Sakkari WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 05/08 | Kayla Day WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 09/07 | Karolina Muchova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
Jessica Pegula
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 20/08 | Amanda Anisimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 19/08 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 18/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/08 | Simona Waltert WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Coco Gauff vs Jessica Pegula?
Our model gives 56% to Coco Gauff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.