Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 20/08, 19:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Mirra Andreeva
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Mirra Andreeva
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
7-3 (W-L)
Mirra Andreeva
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
2–1
Mirra Andreeva
(3 last)
- 04 Jun0-2 4-12L
- 02 May2-0 13-8W
- 09 Jan2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1580 · Mirra Andreeva 1532
| Marta Kostyuk | Mirra Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 45% | 55% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marta Kostyuk (rating 1580 vs 1532).
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 2–1 Mirra Andreeva (3).
- Note: Marta Kostyuk makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Mirra Andreeva | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.5-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-9.6 | 11.3-7.2 |
| Aces | 4 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 4.4 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.7% | 70.6% |
| Break % | 59.1% | 54.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 2 – 1 Mirra Andreeva (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 2–1 Mirra Andreeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/06/26 French Open Women | 0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 02/05/26 WTA Madrid | 2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/01/26 WTA Brisbane | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Sloane Stephens WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 16/08 | Sofia Kenin WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Madison Keys WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Katherine Sebov WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
Mirra Andreeva
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Janice Tjen WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Oleksandra Oliynykova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 07/08 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Barbora Krejcikova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 29/06 | Magda Linette Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 24/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 06/06 | Maja Chwalinska French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Marta Kostyuk French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 02/06 | Sorana Cirstea French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva?
Our model gives 50% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.