Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 18/08, 19:00
Prediction: Katerina Siniakova vs Madison Keys
Team pages: Katerina Siniakova · Madison Keys
Prediction summary
Winner
Katerina Siniakova
Madison Keys
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Katerina Siniakova
6-4 (W-L)
Madison Keys
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Katerina Siniakova
0–2
Madison Keys
(2 last)
- 26 Aug0-2 5-12L
- 03 Jun0-2 6-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Katerina Siniakova 1518 · Madison Keys 1557
| Katerina Siniakova | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Katerina Siniakova 0–2 Madison Keys (2).
- Note: Katerina Siniakova makes many double faults (5.6/match).
- Note: Madison Keys makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Katerina Siniakova | Madison Keys | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Grass | 57% (7) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-0.9 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-9.9 | 12.6-9.8 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 70.2% | 74.6% |
| Break % | 50.3% | 36.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Katerina Siniakova 0 – 2 Madison Keys (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Katerina Siniakova 0–2 Madison Keys
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/24 US Open Women | 0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 03/06/19 French Open Women | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Katerina Siniakova
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Jessica Bouzas Maneiro WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Nikola Bartunkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Qinwen Zheng Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/06 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Rebeka Masarova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Lin Zhu WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 15/06 | Yue Yuan WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/05 | Victoria Mboko French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 26/05 | Simona Waltert French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Madison Keys
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Daria Snigur WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 06/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 02/07 | Katie Swan Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Kayla Day Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 27/06 | Tatjana Maria WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/06 | McCartney Kessler WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Katerina Siniakova vs Madison Keys?
Our model gives 65% to Madison Keys, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.