Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 18/08, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu Wang
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Xinyu Wang
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Xinyu Wang
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
6-4 (W-L)
Xinyu Wang
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Aryna Sabalenka
1–0
Xinyu Wang
(1 last)
- 20 Jan2-1 13-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1550 · Xinyu Wang 1515
| Aryna Sabalenka | Xinyu Wang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 7.3 aces and 49.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Aryna Sabalenka 1–0 Xinyu Wang (1).
- Note: Xinyu Wang makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Xinyu Wang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Grass | 67% (6) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-10.5 | 11-10 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 4.6 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.5% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 46% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Aryna Sabalenka 1 – 0 Xinyu Wang (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Aryna Sabalenka 1–0 Xinyu Wang
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/01/22 Australian Open Women | 2-1 | 13-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Talia Gibson WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Xinyu Wang
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Donna Vekic WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 14/08 | Hanne Vandewinkel WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 29/07 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Julieta Pareja WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Belinda Bencic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 29/06 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 26/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/06 | Leylah Annie Fernandez WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/06 | Renata Zarazua WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Xinyu Wang?
Our model gives 72% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.