Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 17/08, 17:00
Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari
Team pages: Iga Swiatek · Maria Sakkari
Prediction summary
Winner
Iga Swiatek
Maria Sakkari
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Iga Swiatek
8-2 (W-L)
Maria Sakkari
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Iga Swiatek
5–4
Maria Sakkari
(9 last)
- 10 Mar2-0 12-5W
- 12 Feb1-2 15-15L
- 10 Feb2-0 12-5W
- 17 Mar2-0 12-4W
- 20 Mar2-0 12-5W
- 25 Feb2-0 12-7W
- 11 Nov0-2 6-12L
- 25 Sept0-2 9-13L
Showing the 8 with a final score we have.
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iga Swiatek 1619 · Maria Sakkari 1554
| Iga Swiatek | Maria Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1619 vs 1554).
- Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek 5–4 Maria Sakkari (9).
Statistics
| Iga Swiatek | Maria Sakkari | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (7) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-6.5 | 10.9-8.9 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68.3% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 58.3% | 51.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
H2H · Iga Swiatek 5 – 4 Maria Sakkari (9)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iga Swiatek 5–4 Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/03/26 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/02/26 WTA Doha | 1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 10/02/25 WTA Doha | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/03/24 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/03/22 WTA Indian Wells | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/02/22 WTA Doha | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 11/11/21 WTA Finals | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/09/21 WTA Ostrava | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Emiliana Arango WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 14/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Karolina Pliskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Taylor Townsend Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
Maria Sakkari
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-10 | W |
| 08/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/07 | Barbora Krejcikova WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/07 | Alina Korneeva WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 17/07 | Alycia Parks WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Harriet Dart WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Kamilla Rakhimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iga Swiatek vs Maria Sakkari?
Our model gives 73% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.