Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 17/08, 18:30
Prediction: Magdalena Frech vs Elena Rybakina
Team pages: Magdalena Frech · Elena Rybakina
Prediction summary
Winner
Magdalena Frech
Elena Rybakina
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Magdalena Frech
6-4 (W-L)
Elena Rybakina
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Magdalena Frech
0–3
Elena Rybakina
(3 last)
- 26 Jul0-2 6-12L
- 21 Feb1-2 16-16L
- 14 Nov0-2 7-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Magdalena Frech 1519 · Elena Rybakina 1582
| Magdalena Frech | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 17% | 83% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Elena Rybakina (rating 1519 vs 1582).
- Elena Rybakina is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Magdalena Frech 0–3 Elena Rybakina (3).
- Note: Elena Rybakina makes many double faults (4.7/match).
Statistics
| Magdalena Frech | Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 86% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.2 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-10.6 | 12.9-11 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 6.3 |
| Double faults | 3 | 4.7 |
| 1st serve % | 67.6% | 73.5% |
| Break % | 40.2% | 39.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
H2H · Magdalena Frech 0 – 3 Elena Rybakina (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Magdalena Frech 0–3 Elena Rybakina
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/25 WTA Washington | 0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/02/24 WTA Dubai | 1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 14/11/18 WTA Taipei | 0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Magdalena Frech
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Jelena Ostapenko WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Jessica Pegula WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Ann Li WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Anna Kalinskaya Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Eva Lys WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Shuai Zhang WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Elena Rybakina
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Taylor Townsend WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 12/08 | Naomi Osaka WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 09/08 | Ludmilla Samsonova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/08 | Ann Li WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Daria Kasatkina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Elise Mertens Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Caty McNally Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Lois Boisson Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Magdalena Frech vs Elena Rybakina?
Our model gives 72% to Elena Rybakina, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.