Tennis · Challenger Kingston · 16/08, 20:00
Prediction: Miguel Tobon vs Lorenzo Claverie
Team pages: Miguel Tobon · Lorenzo Claverie
Prediction summary
Winner
Miguel Tobon
Lorenzo Claverie
Estimated games
24.6
Recent form · 10 last
Miguel Tobon
4-6 (W-L)
Lorenzo Claverie
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Tobon 1444 · Lorenzo Claverie 1542
| Miguel Tobon | Lorenzo Claverie | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lorenzo Claverie (rating 1444 vs 1542).
- Lorenzo Claverie is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Lorenzo Claverie makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Miguel Tobon | Lorenzo Claverie | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 29% (7) | 83% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.6 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-13.3 | 13.6-13 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 12.3 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 78.1% |
| Break % | 50.8% | 28.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Tobon
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 20/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 13/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Yanaki Milev Challenger Parma · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 09/06 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Cattolica · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/06 | Enrico Dalla Valle Challenger Perugia · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 31/05 | Mika Brunold Challenger Perugia · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Lorenzo Claverie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Tristan Boyer ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/07 | Bruno Kuzuhara Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 11/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 10/07 | Facundo Mena Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Nick Hardt Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/07 | Samuel Heredia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 06/07 | Christopher Papa Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 05/07 | Daniel Antonio Nunez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/06 | Jack Satterfield M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 25/06 | Maxwell Exsted M15 Claremont · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Tobon vs Lorenzo Claverie?
Our model gives 55% to Miguel Tobon, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.