Tennis · Challenger Kingston · 16/08, 19:00
Prediction: Roger Pascual Ferra vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Team pages: Roger Pascual Ferra · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Roger Pascual Ferra
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Roger Pascual Ferra
5-5 (W-L)
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roger Pascual Ferra 1539 · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1482
| Roger Pascual Ferra | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roger Pascual Ferra (rating 1539 vs 1482).
- Roger Pascual Ferra is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Roger Pascual Ferra | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-8.4 | 11.9-12.3 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 64.3% | 65.5% |
| Break % | 45% | 33.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roger Pascual Ferra
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Aidan Mayo ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/07 | Colton Smith ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 23/07 | Andres Martin Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
1-2 | 12-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 20/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 19/07 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/06 | Mathys Picard M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/06 | Charles Bertimon M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/06 | Alexander Frusina M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Ander Tarrio Ponte M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 12/07 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Tiago Torres M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matthew Summers M25 Figueira da Foz · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/06 | Matisse Bobichon M25 Porto |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/06 | Joao Domingues M25 Lourinha · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roger Pascual Ferra vs Mario Gonzalez Fernandez?
Our model gives 63% to Roger Pascual Ferra, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.