Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 17/08, 16:00
Prediction: Emma Navarro vs Jessica Pegula
Team pages: Emma Navarro · Jessica Pegula
Prediction summary
Winner
Emma Navarro
Jessica Pegula
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Emma Navarro
3-7 (W-L)
Jessica Pegula
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Emma Navarro
0–3
Jessica Pegula
(3 last)
- 03 Oct1-2 10-18L
- 26 Jun1-2 13-13L
- 26 Mar0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emma Navarro 1504 · Jessica Pegula 1588
| Emma Navarro | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 26% | 74% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jessica Pegula (rating 1504 vs 1588).
- Head-to-head: Emma Navarro 0–3 Jessica Pegula (3).
- Note: Emma Navarro makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| Emma Navarro | Jessica Pegula | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 75% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.2 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-12.1 | 12.4-10 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 67.3% |
| Break % | 34.2% | 55.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
H2H · Emma Navarro 0 – 3 Jessica Pegula (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emma Navarro 0–3 Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/25 WTA Beijing | 1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 26/06/25 WTA Bad Homburg | 1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 26/03/24 WTA Miami | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emma Navarro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Anhelina Kalinina WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 05/08 | Alina Korneeva WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 27/07 | Sofia Kenin WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 04/07 | Marta Kostyuk Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 02/07 | Oksana Selekhmeteva Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Paula Badosa Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 25/06 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Iga Swiatek WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 23/06 | Eva Lys WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Jessica Pegula
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Simona Waltert WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 08/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Kamilla Rakhimova WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/08 | Magdalena Frech WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Alexandra Eala WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 01/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Magdalena Frech WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 07/07 | Coco Gauff Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 05/07 | Iva Jovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emma Navarro vs Jessica Pegula?
Our model gives 69% to Jessica Pegula, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.