Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 16/08, 16:00
Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs Sofia Kenin
Team pages: Marta Kostyuk · Sofia Kenin
Prediction summary
Winner
Marta Kostyuk
Sofia Kenin
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Marta Kostyuk
7-3 (W-L)
Sofia Kenin
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marta Kostyuk
0–1
Sofia Kenin
(1 last)
- 18 Feb1-2 19-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marta Kostyuk 1573 · Sofia Kenin 1461
| Marta Kostyuk | Sofia Kenin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marta Kostyuk (rating 1573 vs 1461).
- Marta Kostyuk is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Marta Kostyuk 0–1 Sofia Kenin (1).
- Note: Sofia Kenin makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Marta Kostyuk | Sofia Kenin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 0.9-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.6-8.7 | 9.8-12.6 |
| Aces | 3.1 | 1.4 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 4.1 |
| 1st serve % | 73.9% | 63.8% |
| Break % | 52.7% | 52.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
H2H · Marta Kostyuk 0 – 1 Sofia Kenin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marta Kostyuk 0–1 Sofia Kenin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/25 WTA Dubai | 1-2 | 19-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marta Kostyuk
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Iga Swiatek WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Madison Keys WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 04/08 | Katherine Sebov WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 09/07 | Linda Noskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Jasmine Paolini Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 06/07 | Ashlyn Krueger Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 04/07 | Emma Navarro Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 02/07 | Anna Blinkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 30/06 | Nadia Podoroska Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/06 | Mirra Andreeva French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
Sofia Kenin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Eva Lys WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 01/08 | Lucrezia Stefanini WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 27/07 | Emma Navarro WTA Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Amanda Anisimova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Petra Marcinko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/06 | Daria Snigur WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 14/06 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Elsa Jacquemot WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 24/05 | Peyton Stearns French Open Women · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marta Kostyuk vs Sofia Kenin?
Our model gives 76% to Marta Kostyuk, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.