Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson
Team pages: Aryna Sabalenka · Talia Gibson
Prediction summary
Winner
Aryna Sabalenka
Talia Gibson
Estimated games
23.5
Recent form · 10 last
Aryna Sabalenka
6-4 (W-L)
Talia Gibson
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aryna Sabalenka 1560 · Talia Gibson 1480
| Aryna Sabalenka | Talia Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 84% | 16% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aryna Sabalenka (rating 1560 vs 1480).
- Aryna Sabalenka dominates on serve: 6.3 aces and 47.2% break avg.
- Aryna Sabalenka is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Talia Gibson makes many double faults (6.6/match).
Statistics
| Aryna Sabalenka | Talia Gibson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 71% (7) | 33% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.7 | 1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-10.5 | 10.9-12.5 |
| Aces | 6.3 | 5.5 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 6.6 |
| 1st serve % | 72.5% | 67% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 41.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aryna Sabalenka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 07/08 | Shuai Zhang WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Moyuka Uchijima WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/07 | Naomi Osaka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Jelena Ostapenko Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 01/07 | McCartney Kessler Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Teodora Kostovic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 20/06 | Jessica Pegula WTA Berlin · Grass |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 19/06 | Nikola Bartunkova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 17/06 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Talia Gibson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Lilli Tagger WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Ekaterina Alexandrova WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 04/08 | Maja Chwalinska WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Tatjana Maria WTA Memphis · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Marie Bouzkova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 23/06 | Madison Keys WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 19/06 | Karolina Pliskova WTA Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Qinwen Zheng WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 15/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-16 | W |
| 07/06 | Alina Charaeva WTA Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aryna Sabalenka vs Talia Gibson?
Our model gives 74% to Aryna Sabalenka, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.