Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 16/08, 17:00
Prediction: Iga Swiatek vs Emiliana Arango
Team pages: Iga Swiatek · Emiliana Arango
Prediction summary
Winner
Iga Swiatek
Emiliana Arango
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Iga Swiatek
7-3 (W-L)
Emiliana Arango
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Iga Swiatek
1–0
Emiliana Arango
(1 last)
- 26 Aug2-0 12-3W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Iga Swiatek 1617 · Emiliana Arango 1502
| Iga Swiatek | Emiliana Arango | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 95% | 5% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Iga Swiatek (rating 1617 vs 1502).
- Iga Swiatek is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Iga Swiatek 1–0 Emiliana Arango (1).
Statistics
| Iga Swiatek | Emiliana Arango | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (6) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.7 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.4-7.7 | 10-11.2 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.5% | 62.2% |
| Break % | 54.4% | 42.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
H2H · Iga Swiatek 1 – 0 Emiliana Arango (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Iga Swiatek 1–0 Emiliana Arango
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/25 US Open Women | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Iga Swiatek
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Elena Rybakina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Elina Svitolina WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Diana Shnaider WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/08 | Marta Kostyuk WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 06/08 | Viktorija Golubic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Sara Bejlek WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/07 | Alexandra Eala Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Karolina Pliskova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Taylor Townsend Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 24/06 | Emma Navarro WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Emiliana Arango
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Venus Williams WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/08 | Nadia Podoroska WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 01/08 | Lois Boisson WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Tamara Zidansek WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 08/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/07 | Lea Nilsson WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/06 | Anastasia Gasanova Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Caty McNally WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Maya Joint WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Iga Swiatek vs Emiliana Arango?
Our model gives 82% to Iga Swiatek, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.