Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 15/08, 17:00
Prediction: Jelena Ostapenko vs Magdalena Frech
Team pages: Jelena Ostapenko · Magdalena Frech
Prediction summary
Winner
Jelena Ostapenko
Magdalena Frech
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Jelena Ostapenko
6-4 (W-L)
Magdalena Frech
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Jelena Ostapenko
2–0
Magdalena Frech
(2 last)
- 07 Jan2-1 16-8W
- 23 Jun2-1 17-13W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jelena Ostapenko 1556 · Magdalena Frech 1460
| Jelena Ostapenko | Magdalena Frech | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 53% | 47% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jelena Ostapenko (rating 1556 vs 1460).
- Jelena Ostapenko is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Jelena Ostapenko 2–0 Magdalena Frech (2).
- Note: Jelena Ostapenko makes many double faults (6.3/match).
Statistics
| Jelena Ostapenko | Magdalena Frech | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Grass | 83% (6) | 20% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-8.1 | 10.7-11.9 |
| Aces | 5.3 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 6.3 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.2% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 52.5% | 40.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Jelena Ostapenko 2 – 0 Magdalena Frech (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Jelena Ostapenko 2–0 Magdalena Frech
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/25 WTA Adelaide | 2-1 | 16-8 | W |
| 23/06/23 WTA Birmingham | 2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jelena Ostapenko
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07 | Aryna Sabalenka Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Antonia Ruzic Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/06 | Harriet Dart Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 25/06 | Zeynep Sonmez WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 24/06 | Panna Udvardy WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 22/06 | Francesca Jones WTA Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 27/05 | Magda Linette French Open Women · Clay |
1-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 25/05 | Ella Seidel French Open Women · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/05 | Sorana Cirstea WTA Rome · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 11/05 | Anna Kalinskaya WTA Rome · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Magdalena Frech
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Antonia Ruzic WTA Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Jessica Pegula WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 03/08 | Leolia Jeanjean WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Jessica Pegula WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Ann Li WTA Washington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 29/06 | Anna Kalinskaya Wimbledon Women · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Naomi Osaka WTA Bad Homburg · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Eva Lys WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Shuai Zhang WTA Berlin · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich WTA Berlin · Grass |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jelena Ostapenko vs Magdalena Frech?
Our model gives 58% to Jelena Ostapenko, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.