Tennis · WTA Cincinnati · 11/08, 19:30
Prediction: Alina Korneeva vs Varvara Lepchenko
Team pages: Alina Korneeva · Varvara Lepchenko
Prediction summary
Winner
Alina Korneeva
Varvara Lepchenko
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Alina Korneeva
6-4 (W-L)
Varvara Lepchenko
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alina Korneeva 1568 · Varvara Lepchenko 1469
| Alina Korneeva | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 64% | 36% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alina Korneeva (rating 1568 vs 1469).
- Alina Korneeva is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Alina Korneeva | Varvara Lepchenko | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (8) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.7 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-7.8 | 13-12.3 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 63% | 61.8% |
| Break % | 63.4% | 55.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alina Korneeva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Coco Gauff WTA Toronto · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Iva Jovic WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Emma Navarro WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/08 | Mary Stoiana WTA Toronto · Hard |
2-1 | 14-13 | W |
| 18/07 | Maria Sakkari WTA Athens · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 17/07 | Tereza Valentova WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/07 | Ann Li WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/07 | Aoi Ito WTA Athens · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 30/06 | Kimberly Birrell Wimbledon Women · Grass |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Fiona Crawley Wimbledon Women · Grass |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Varvara Lepchenko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Emerson Jones WTA Toronto · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 26/07 | Polina Kudermetova WTA Washington · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 25/07 | Clervie Ngounoue WTA Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Elina Avanesyan WTA Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 19/07 | Anna Petkovic WTA Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Clara Burel WTA Iasi · Clay |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/07 | Alevtina Ibragimova WTA Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/07 | Maia Ilinca Burcescu WTA Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 09/07 | Paula Badosa WTA Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Tamara Korpatsch WTA Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alina Korneeva vs Varvara Lepchenko?
Our model gives 72% to Alina Korneeva, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.