Tennis · M25 Idanha-A-Nova · 11/08, 12:00
Prediction: Mathieu Scaglia vs Ander Tarrio Ponte
Team pages: Mathieu Scaglia · Ander Tarrio Ponte
Prediction summary
Winner
Mathieu Scaglia
Ander Tarrio Ponte
Estimated games
21.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mathieu Scaglia
4-6 (W-L)
Ander Tarrio Ponte
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mathieu Scaglia 1465 · Ander Tarrio Ponte 1542
| Mathieu Scaglia | Ander Tarrio Ponte | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ander Tarrio Ponte (rating 1465 vs 1542).
- Ander Tarrio Ponte is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Mathieu Scaglia makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Mathieu Scaglia | Ander Tarrio Ponte | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | – | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.2-11.2 | 10.9-10.3 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 65.7% | 64% |
| Break % | 37.6% | 30.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mathieu Scaglia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07 | Julio Cesar Porras M15 Rognac |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Nicholas Godsick M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Lucas Poullain M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/06 | Benjamin Pietri M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/06 | Aziz Ouakaa M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Nick Beamish M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/05 | Fausto Tabacco M15 Monastir · ~Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Ander Tarrio Ponte
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Lorenzo Lorusso M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 05/08 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Matias Reyniak M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/08 | Max Villar M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Lautaro Agustin Corthey UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/07 | Riccardo Campagnola UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Razvan Baiant UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Noah Folkesson Doudy UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Timo De Visser UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Jakub Volesky UTR Pro Skopje · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mathieu Scaglia vs Ander Tarrio Ponte?
Our model gives 50% to Mathieu Scaglia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.