Tennis · M25 Idanha-A-Nova · 21/08, 10:00
Prediction: Pavel Lagutin vs Mathieu Scaglia
Team pages: Pavel Lagutin · Mathieu Scaglia
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Lagutin
Mathieu Scaglia
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Lagutin
9-1 (W-L)
Mathieu Scaglia
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Lagutin 1637 · Mathieu Scaglia 1530
| Pavel Lagutin | Mathieu Scaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1637 vs 1530).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Pavel Lagutin | Mathieu Scaglia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | – | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.2 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-6.4 | 12.5-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.4% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 42.7% | 44.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Tiago Silva M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/08 | Philip Henning M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 12/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Eric Vanshelboim M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 31/07 | Ignacio Parisca Romera M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/07 | Anas Mazdrashki M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 29/07 | Brian Bozemoj M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Mathieu Scaglia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Abdulhamid Mubarak M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/08 | Maxwell McKennon M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 13/08 | Pablo Perez Navarro M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Ander Tarrio Ponte M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 24/07 | Julio Cesar Porras M15 Rognac |
1-2 | 16-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Nicholas Godsick M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/07 | Alejandro Turriziani Alvarez M15 Rognac |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Laurent Lokoli M25 Bastia-Lucciana |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 02/07 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Lucas Poullain M25 Ajaccio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Lagutin vs Mathieu Scaglia?
Our model gives 77% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.