Tennis · Challenger Hamburg · 11/08, 10:00
Prediction: Jamie Mackenzie vs Jan Kumstat
Team pages: Jamie Mackenzie · Jan Kumstat
Prediction summary
Winner
Jamie Mackenzie
Jan Kumstat
Estimated games
23.1
Recent form · 10 last
Jamie Mackenzie
6-4 (W-L)
Jan Kumstat
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jamie Mackenzie 1521 · Jan Kumstat 1607
| Jamie Mackenzie | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 31% | 69% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jan Kumstat (rating 1521 vs 1607).
- Jan Kumstat is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Jamie Mackenzie | Jan Kumstat | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 80% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (6) | 88% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.7-0.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12.5 | 13-9.5 |
| Aces | 5.4 | 8.4 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 70.3% | 80.4% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 35.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jamie Mackenzie
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08 | Elmer Moller Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/08 | Jan Choinski Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Max Dahlin Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 31/07 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Elmer Moller Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-1 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Buvaysar Gadamauri Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Viktor Durasovic M25 Metzingen |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 22/07 | Tomas Farjat M25 Metzingen |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 20/06 | Marc Polmans ATP Mallorca · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Alex Bolt ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Jan Kumstat
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Tom Zeuch Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 09/08 | Alan Wazny Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Gonzalo Bueno Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 01/08 | Sumit Nagal Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Frederico Ferreira Silva Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Thiago Seyboth Wild Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/07 | Zdenek Kolar Challenger Liberec · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 24/07 | Mathys Erhard M25 Ollersbach |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Yuichiro Inui M25 Ollersbach |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/07 | Tom Gentzsch Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jamie Mackenzie vs Jan Kumstat?
Our model gives 66% to Jan Kumstat, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.