Tennis · Challenger Hamburg · 14/08, 10:30
Prediction: Marvin Moeller vs Niels McDonald
Team pages: Marvin Moeller · Niels McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Marvin Moeller
Niels McDonald
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Marvin Moeller
6-4 (W-L)
Niels McDonald
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marvin Moeller 1587 · Niels McDonald 1516
| Marvin Moeller | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marvin Moeller (rating 1587 vs 1516).
- Marvin Moeller is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Niels McDonald makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Marvin Moeller | Niels McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 80% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.7 | 10-11 |
| Aces | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 61.7% | 64.5% |
| Break % | 33.7% | 35.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marvin Moeller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 10/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Benito Sanchez Martinez Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-1 | 13-15 | W |
| 05/07 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/07 | Calvin Hemery Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 03/07 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 01/07 | Mickael Kaouk Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/06 | Fryderyk Lechno-Wasiutynski Challenger Troyes · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/06 | Dylan Dietrich M25 Brussels · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Niels McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 10/08 | Mika Petkovic Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 12-13 | W |
| 04/08 | Jerome Kym Challenger Hagen · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 28/07 | Dimitris Sakellaridis Challenger Bonn · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/07 | Federico Agustin Gomez ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 10/07 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 07/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Juan Cruz Martin Manzano Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marvin Moeller vs Niels McDonald?
Our model gives 59% to Marvin Moeller, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.