Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 26/07, 19:00
Prediction: Liam Draxl vs Toby Samuel
Team pages: Liam Draxl · Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Liam Draxl
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
21.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Liam Draxl
7-3 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
10-0 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Liam Draxl 1609 · Toby Samuel 1567
| Liam Draxl | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Liam Draxl (rating 1609 vs 1567).
Statistics
| Liam Draxl | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 86% (7) | 100% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.6 | 1.8-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-8.5 | 14-9.9 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 75.5% | 76% |
| Break % | 42% | 48.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8 · Bet365 line 21.5
Over 21.5: 52% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 48% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 25/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | James Trotter Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Nicolas Arseneault M25 Laval |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Stephen Slocombe M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 24/07 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 23/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 21/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 26/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Liam Draxl vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 56% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.