Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 25/07, 21:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Liam Draxl
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Liam Draxl
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Liam Draxl
Estimated games
23.8Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
7-3 (W-L)
Liam Draxl
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1606 · Liam Draxl 1557
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shintaro Mochizuki (rating 1606 vs 1557).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (3) | 71% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-0.9 | 1.5-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 16.4-12.8 | 11.9-9.5 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 3.6 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 42.4% | 36% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.8 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +1.3
Over 22.5: 59% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 41% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Liam Draxl
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Clement Chidekh Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 24/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 22/07 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | James Trotter Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Nicolas Arseneault M25 Laval |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Stephen Slocombe M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Liam Draxl?
Our model gives 53% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.