Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 25/07, 00:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Johannus Monday
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Johannus Monday
Estimated games
25.8Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
6-4 (W-L)
Johannus Monday
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Shintaro Mochizuki
1–0
Johannus Monday
(1 last)
- 12 Jun2-1 18-14W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1579 · Johannus Monday 1498
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Johannus Monday | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shintaro Mochizuki (rating 1579 vs 1498).
- Shintaro Mochizuki is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Shintaro Mochizuki 1–0 Johannus Monday (1).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Johannus Monday | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 75% (8) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1.1 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-13 | 12-11.5 |
| Aces | 4.5 | 3.4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 77.5% | 72.1% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 34.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.8 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +4.3
Over 21.5: 77% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 23% · 1.80
H2H · Shintaro Mochizuki 1 – 0 Johannus Monday (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Shintaro Mochizuki 1–0 Johannus Monday
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/06/25 Challenger Ilkley | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
| 22/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Johannus Monday
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/07 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Henry Searle Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Arda Azkara Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Matthew Summers Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 29/05 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Braden Shick Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Johannus Monday?
Our model gives 60% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.