Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 23/07, 18:00
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Liam Draxl
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Liam Draxl
Estimated games
22.2Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
4-6 (W-L)
Liam Draxl
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
August Holmgren
1–0
Liam Draxl
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1544 · Liam Draxl 1516
| August Holmgren | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 54% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: August Holmgren 1–0 Liam Draxl (1).
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (5.8/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Liam Draxl | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (5) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.2-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-12.6 | 11.3-9.7 |
| Aces | 8.7 | 3.5 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 76.7% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 29.1% | 37.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2 · Bet365 line 22.5
Over 22.5: 48% · 1.90
Under 22.5: 52% · 1.80
H2H · August Holmgren 1 – 0 Liam Draxl (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · August Holmgren 1–0 Liam Draxl
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/25 Challenger Granby | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 08/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Liam Broady Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Liam Draxl
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 15/07 | James Trotter Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Keegan Rice M25 Laval |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 10/07 | Nicolas Arseneault M25 Laval |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/07 | Stephen Slocombe M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 22/06 | Remy Bertola Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 06/06 | Adam Walton Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Liam Draxl?
Our model gives 54% to August Holmgren, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.