Tennis · UTR Pro Auburn Women · 28/07, 19:00
Prediction: Natalie Outcalt vs Mary Grace Rennard
Team pages: Natalie Outcalt · Mary Grace Rennard
Prediction summary
Winner
Natalie Outcalt
Mary Grace Rennard
Estimated games
20.3
Recent form · 10 last
Natalie Outcalt
2-8 (W-L)
Mary Grace Rennard
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Natalie Outcalt 1386 · Mary Grace Rennard 1417
| Natalie Outcalt | Mary Grace Rennard | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Natalie Outcalt makes many double faults (8.3/match).
Statistics
| Natalie Outcalt | Mary Grace Rennard | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 10% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 10% (10) | 13% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.4-1.8 | 0.7-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 7-12.3 | 8.7-12 |
| Aces | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| Double faults | 8.3 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 53.8% | 53.6% |
| Break % | 54.7% | 42.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Natalie Outcalt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Tricia Mar UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Alexandra Wolf UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 25/06 | Lily Pradkin UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Sophia Webster UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Campbell Ricci UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/01 | Yael Saffar UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/01 | Gabriella Lindgren UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 31/12 | Ameia Sorey UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/12 | Claire An UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/12 | Ema Burgic UTR Pro Boca Raton Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Mary Grace Rennard
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | Natalie Oliver UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 09/07 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Susana Souhrada UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Clay |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Aya Manning UTR Pro Winston-Salem Women · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Kerrigan Spiers UTR Pro Tuscaloosa Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 19/05 | Georgia Kulevich UTR Pro Tuscaloosa Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/01 | Tzeng Mu-Jie UTR Pro Waco Women · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 01/01 | Theodora Xantava UTR Pro Waco Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 31/12 | Rachel Wu UTR Pro Waco Women · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 30/12 | Ella Brownback UTR Pro Waco Women · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Natalie Outcalt vs Mary Grace Rennard?
Our model gives 55% to Natalie Outcalt, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.