Tennis · UTR Pro Auburn Women · 07/08, 16:00
Prediction: Kaya Moe vs Natalie Outcalt
Team pages: Kaya Moe · Natalie Outcalt
Prediction summary
Winner
Kaya Moe
Natalie Outcalt
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kaya Moe
8-2 (W-L)
Natalie Outcalt
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaya Moe 1526 · Natalie Outcalt 1362
| Kaya Moe | Natalie Outcalt | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 72% | 28% |
| Market | 91% | 9% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kaya Moe (rating 1526 vs 1362).
- Kaya Moe is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Note: Kaya Moe makes many double faults (6.6/match).
- Note: Natalie Outcalt makes many double faults (8.1/match).
Statistics
| Kaya Moe | Natalie Outcalt | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 0% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 0% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.4-2 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.5-9.2 | 7.6-13.4 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 0.6 |
| Double faults | 6.6 | 8.1 |
| 1st serve % | 65.8% | 55% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 35.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaya Moe
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Gabby Barrera UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Lexie Weir UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Kate Sharabura UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Dasha Plekhanova W35 Saskatoon |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 25/06 | Georgia Kulevich UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Liam Oved UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 23/06 | Ellison Reynoldson UTR Pro Knoxville Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 27/05 | Barakat Oyinlomo Quadre W35 Wichita · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 26/05 | Serafima Elizarova W35 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 14/03 | Alexandra Vagramov W15 Victoriaville |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Natalie Outcalt
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08 | Lucia Donnelly UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 31/07 | Addy Rogin UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-15 | L |
| 30/07 | Kesmat El Tawil UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 29/07 | Gloriana Nahum UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Mary Grace Rennard UTR Pro Auburn Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 27/06 | Tricia Mar UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/06 | Alexandra Wolf UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 25/06 | Lily Pradkin UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Sophia Webster UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 23/06 | Campbell Ricci UTR Pro Newport Beach Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaya Moe vs Natalie Outcalt?
Our model gives 82% to Kaya Moe, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.