Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 23/07, 19:00
Prediction: Hayato Matsuoka vs Clement Chidekh
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayato Matsuoka
Clement Chidekh
Estimated games
22Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hayato Matsuoka
4-6 (W-L)
Clement Chidekh
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayato Matsuoka 1489 · Clement Chidekh 1531
| Hayato Matsuoka | Clement Chidekh | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Clement Chidekh (rating 1489 vs 1531).
- Note: Hayato Matsuoka makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Hayato Matsuoka | Clement Chidekh | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (3) | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.2 | 1.3-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-10.7 | 12.6-10.7 |
| Aces | 2 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 73.4% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 37.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +0.5
Over 21.5: 54% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 46% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Matisse Farzam Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Clement Chidekh
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | James Trotter Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/07 | Henry Searle Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/07 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 10/07 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 08/07 | Alberto Barroso Campos Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/07 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 22/06 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Colton Smith Challenger Dublin · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 09/06 | Billy Harris Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 02/06 | Filippo Romano Challenger Birmingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayato Matsuoka vs Clement Chidekh?
Our model gives 64% to Clement Chidekh, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.