Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 23/07, 18:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Duncan Chan
Estimated games
24.6Bet365 line 20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
6-4 (W-L)
Duncan Chan
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1597 · Duncan Chan 1531
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Duncan Chan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 41% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shintaro Mochizuki (rating 1597 vs 1531).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Duncan Chan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (1) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2-1 | 1.2-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 15.8-12.9 | 11.9-11.8 |
| Aces | 4.9 | 3.7 |
| Double faults | 3.3 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 77.2% | 68.4% |
| Break % | 47.6% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.6 · Bet365 line 20.5 · +4.1
Over 20.5: 76% · 1.83
Under 20.5: 24% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 05/07 | Jannik Sinner Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 12-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Rafael Jodar Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 20-20 | W |
| 01/07 | Ethan Quinn Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 20-13 | W |
| 29/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-3 | W |
| 25/06 | Clement Tabur Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 22-21 | W |
| 24/06 | Gauthier Onclin Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 22/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Remy Bertola Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Mackenzie McDonald Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
Duncan Chan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | James McCabe Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Cesar Bouchelaghem Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Alafia Ayeni Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 08/07 | Nicola Ion M25 Laval |
2-1 | 11-10 | W |
| 18/06 | Braden Shick M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Ryan Colby M25 Tulsa · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 12/06 | Ozan Baris M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 11/06 | Pavle Marinkov M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Duncan Chan?
Our model gives 67% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.