Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 23/07, 19:00
Prediction: Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu
Prediction summary
Winner
Johannus Monday
Yuta Shimizu
Estimated games
23.1Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Johannus Monday
5-5 (W-L)
Yuta Shimizu
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Johannus Monday 1511 · Yuta Shimizu 1548
| Johannus Monday | Yuta Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 55% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Johannus Monday | Yuta Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.2 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.9-11.4 | 12.7-12.4 |
| Aces | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 72% | 72.3% |
| Break % | 36.6% | 37.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.1 · Bet365 line 22.5 · +0.6
Over 22.5: 54% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 46% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Johannus Monday
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 10/07 | Henry Searle Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Arda Azkara Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Matthew Summers Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/06 | Tristan Schoolkate Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Blaise Bicknell Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 29/05 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/05 | Braden Shick Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 25/05 | Christian Langmo Challenger Little Rock · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Yuta Shimizu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Ryan Colby M25 Laval |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Dan Martin Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 05/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 04/06 | Murphy Cassone Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-1 | 20-19 | W |
| 03/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu?
Our model gives 56% to Johannus Monday, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.