Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 23/07, 01:00
Prediction: Yosuke Watanuki vs Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Yosuke Watanuki
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
23.7Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Yosuke Watanuki
6-4 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yosuke Watanuki 1530 · Toby Samuel 1499
| Yosuke Watanuki | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 46% |
| Market | 29% | 71% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Yosuke Watanuki dominates on serve: 9.2 aces and 45.4% break avg.
Statistics
| Yosuke Watanuki | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | – | 44% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1.5-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12-10.3 | 12.8-11.6 |
| Aces | 9.2 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.9% | 71.2% |
| Break % | 45.4% | 39.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.7 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.2
Over 21.5: 65% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 35% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yosuke Watanuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 14/07 | August Holmgren Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 03/07 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/07 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 30/06 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 08/06 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Bratislava · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/05 | Federico Cina French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 02/03 | Florian Broska Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/03 | Arthur Nagel Challenger Thionville · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Mikael Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/06 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 26/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 12/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yosuke Watanuki vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 60% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.