Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 23/07, 01:00
Prediction: Rio Noguchi vs Keegan Rice
Prediction summary
Winner
Rio Noguchi
Keegan Rice
Estimated games
22.6Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Rio Noguchi
3-7 (W-L)
Keegan Rice
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Rio Noguchi 1513 · Keegan Rice 1543
| Rio Noguchi | Keegan Rice | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 54% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Rio Noguchi | Keegan Rice | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (5) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.4 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-12.1 | 12.7-10.5 |
| Aces | 0.7 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 59.7% | 65.6% |
| Break % | 41% | 46.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +1.1
Over 21.5: 58% · 1.83
Under 21.5: 42% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Luca Nardi Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Clement Tabur Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Hamish Stewart Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 14/06 | Paul Jubb Challenger Dublin · Grass |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Keegan Rice
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Nicolas Arseneault Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 17/07 | Arthur Gea Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexander Rozin Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 12/07 | Kenta Miyoshi M25 Laval |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 11/07 | Jay Friend M25 Laval |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Liam Draxl M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/07 | Matthew Thomson M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 07/07 | Dan Martin M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 14/11 | Dan Martin Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
1-2 | 15-19 | L |
| 11/11 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Rio Noguchi vs Keegan Rice?
Our model gives 55% to Rio Noguchi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.