Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 23:00
Prediction: August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns
Prediction summary
Winner
August Holmgren
Garrett Johns
Estimated games
23.9Bet365 line 21.5
Recent form · 10 last
August Holmgren
4-6 (W-L)
Garrett Johns
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
August Holmgren
1–0
Garrett Johns
(1 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · August Holmgren 1490 · Garrett Johns 1504
| August Holmgren | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: August Holmgren 1–0 Garrett Johns (1).
- Note: August Holmgren makes many double faults (5.6/match).
Statistics
| August Holmgren | Garrett Johns | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | 33% (6) | 50% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.2-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-12.8 | 12.2-12.6 |
| Aces | 8.4 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 5.6 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 75.7% | 65.9% |
| Break % | 30% | 37.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.9 · Bet365 line 21.5 · +2.4
Over 21.5: 66% · 1.90
Under 21.5: 34% · 1.80
H2H · August Holmgren 1 – 0 Garrett Johns (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · August Holmgren 1–0 Garrett Johns
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/07/25 Challenger Bloomfield Hills | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
August Holmgren
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 17/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 14/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 08/07 | Tristan Schoolkate Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 24/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Liam Broady Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 16/06 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 15/06 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 14/06 | Jay Clarke Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Garrett Johns
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 19/07 | Benjamin Thomas George Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 14/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 07/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Blake Ellis Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 01/06 | Olaf Pieczkowski Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 11/05 | Eero Vasa Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Francisco Rocha Challenger Oeiras · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns?
Our model gives 63% to August Holmgren, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.