Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 19:30
Prediction: Mikael Arseneault vs Toby Samuel
Prediction summary
Winner
Mikael Arseneault
Toby Samuel
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Mikael Arseneault
6-4 (W-L)
Toby Samuel
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mikael Arseneault 1515 · Toby Samuel 1503
| Mikael Arseneault | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Mikael Arseneault | Toby Samuel | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Grass | – | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.5-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.4-10.1 | 13-13 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 5 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 62.5% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 35% | 39.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mikael Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Edward Winter Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 19/07 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Niels Peter Van Noord M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Oliver Ojakaar M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Noah Zamora M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Toby Samuel
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Jakub Mensik Wimbledon · Grass |
2-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 26/06 | Zizou Bergs ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 25/06 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/06 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/06 | Matteo Arnaldi ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 20/06 | Quentin Halys ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/06 | Arthur Fery ATP Queens · Grass |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 13/06 | Dane Sweeny Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 12/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/06 | Kyrian Jacquet Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-1 | 14-16 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mikael Arseneault vs Toby Samuel?
Our model gives 71% to Toby Samuel, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.