Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 21/07, 22:00
Prediction: Hayato Matsuoka vs Daniel Milavsky
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayato Matsuoka
Daniel Milavsky
Estimated games
20.4Bet365 line 22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Hayato Matsuoka
4-6 (W-L)
Daniel Milavsky
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayato Matsuoka 1478 · Daniel Milavsky 1538
| Hayato Matsuoka | Daniel Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 44% | 56% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Daniel Milavsky (rating 1478 vs 1538).
- Daniel Milavsky is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Hayato Matsuoka makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Hayato Matsuoka | Daniel Milavsky | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.8-1.2 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.7-10.6 | 11.2-9.7 |
| Aces | 2 | 4.4 |
| Double faults | 4 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 64% | 71.1% |
| Break % | 43.8% | 63.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4 · Bet365 line 22.5 · -2.1
Over 22.5: 35% · 1.83
Under 22.5: 65% · 1.83
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | Colton Smith Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 08/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Matisse Farzam Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 30/06 | Liam Broady Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 01/06 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Tyler · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 31/05 | Jerry Roddick Challenger Tyler · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Daniel Milavsky
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Anton Shepp Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/07 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Liam Draxl Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Duncan Chan Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/07 | Bu Yunchaokete Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 08/07 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 13-12 | W |
| 05/07 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 28/06 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayato Matsuoka vs Daniel Milavsky?
Our model gives 57% to Daniel Milavsky, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.