Tennis · Challenger Winnipeg · 20/07, 18:00
Prediction: Edward Winter vs Mikael Arseneault
Prediction summary
Winner
Edward Winter
Mikael Arseneault
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Edward Winter
3-7 (W-L)
Mikael Arseneault
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Edward Winter 1568 · Mikael Arseneault 1483
| Edward Winter | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 73% | 27% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Edward Winter (rating 1568 vs 1483).
- Edward Winter is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Edward Winter | Mikael Arseneault | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 38% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.8-11.7 | 10.9-10.4 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 3.3 |
| 1st serve % | 68.7% | 62.6% |
| Break % | 31.9% | 34.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Edward Winter
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Josh Sheehy Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 13/07 | Strong Kirchheimer Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Justin Roberts Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 05/07 | Timo Legout Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 04/07 | William Manning Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 02/07 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/06 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 28/06 | Ian Mayew Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 25/06 | Oscar Weightman M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 23/06 | Izan Orgiles Garcia Retamero M25 Bakio · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Mikael Arseneault
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | Pavle Marinkov Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/07 | Guillaume Dalmasso Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 10/07 | Timo Legout M25 Laval |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Niels Peter Van Noord M25 Laval |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 10/06 | Sebastian Gorzny M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 09/06 | Alex Kobelt M25 Wichita · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 04/06 | Oliver Ojakaar M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Noah Zamora M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-15 | L |
| 27/05 | Juan Carlos Fuentes Vasquez M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/11 | Liam Draxl Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Edward Winter vs Mikael Arseneault?
Our model gives 68% to Edward Winter, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.